In early March, consensus expectations for 2020 global GDP growth were +3%. Now they are -3%. That is a 6% swing in one month – unprecedented. You have to go back more than 40 years to find a similar decline in GDP. Even then, it took 12 months. Generally, such…
We’ve addressed the evolving situation around coronavirus/COVID-19 in both our podcast and a previous blog. However, given the ongoing effects that concern the disease are having on both the marketplace and the zeitgeist, we’d like to delve into it again. In brief: our current circumstances are best approached with a…
The U.S. economy generated an impressive 266,000 jobs in November, in part reflecting the return to work of formerly striking GM employees. The Labor Department reported the unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%. They revised upward job growth in September as well as October. Lastly, they indicated wage growth rose…
The U.S. stock market, which is trading at all-time highs, tends to rise when there is no overhead resistance and economic indicators point to strength. The trajectory of markets has its foundation in the country’s democratic political system and its market-based, capitalist economic system. Using a simple theory, the stock…
History has a way or repeating itself, which leads us to believe that another recession is almost a certainty. It’s not so much a question of if, but rather of when. Historically, the American economy has grown in fits and starts, otherwise known as recessions and expansions. As a result,…
2Q GDP GROWTH RATE LOWERED TO 2.0% The Commerce Department lowered its estimate of 2Q 19′ GDP growth rate to 2.0% from 2.1%. The results, which were in line with expectations, portray a U.S. economy that remains is in solid shape (the long-term growth forecast for GDP is 2.0%) but…
July was a positive month for the S&P 500, rising 1.3% while the core bond ETF (AGG) increased only 0.2%. Looking beyond the United States, stocks and emerging markets (stocks) slumped in the same period. Now, if we focus on the Price/Earnings ratios alone, domestic stocks may appear overvalued. However,…
Global stock markets jumped last week, with the S&P 500 Index rising 4.5% for its biggest gain since late November 2018. Short positions were covered due to technicals that suggested stocks were oversold. This fueled some of the recent recovery, but much of the boost, in our opinion, came after…
U.S. equity markets fell more than 2% last week, one of the worst weekly performances in 2019. The breakdown in U.S./China trade negotiations, combined with President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs, ignited the mild sell-off. However, stocks plunged again on Monday morning amid continuing trade war concerns. China has retaliated…
As stock markets go, the first quarter of 2019 was a win all around. The S&P 500 experienced its best quarter overall since the third quarter of 2009, when the recovery out of the great recession was just getting underway. The index also had its best first quarter since 1998,…
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