The VIX is falling and stocks are priced for perfection. But, before we get started, I encourage everyone to pause this weekend and remember those who came before us. Their quest for independence lives today and we should never forget that freedom in a free country is anything but free….
When it comes to investing, most of us consider the markets to be made up of two types, buyers and sellers. More affectionately known as the bulls and bears. Bulls, those who believe the market will continue its winning ways, like to climb a wall of worry. In that case,…
Happy New Year to our clients and readers. It took a few weeks before gaining enough inspiration to write our first Market Perspectives of 2021. The noise of politics, social unrest, pandemics, and the threat of losing free speech can leave you at a loss for words. Frankly, America has…
The initial phase of the economic restart has been quicker than expected, evidenced by the recent IMF’s upgrade to its global growth outlook. Yes, we have seen a rise in Covid-19 infections, but fatalities and hospitalizations have abated and a severe second wave seems less of a concern versus a…
A Consequential Election The U.S. Presidential election is expected to have big implications for markets – fiscal stimulus, public investment, taxation, regulation, and foreign affairs. We anticipate markets focusing on presidential debates, U.S. consumer confidence and employment numbers later this week. This time around, the U.S. election has a backdrop…
Stocks enjoy another banner week amid elevated risks. Second-quarter earnings data was destined to be catastrophic. However, corporate earnings have been better than many feared, leading to rising investor sentiment and stock prices. The downside, on the other hand, markets may have already priced in many of the positives. In…
Over the last few weeks, the European Union’s massive fiscal plan and expectations of additional stimulus in the U.S. seems to be effective in raising the hopes of investors. Still, upside in stocks was limited amid continued signs the economic recovery may be stalling – likely due to stalled progress…
In early March, consensus expectations for 2020 global GDP growth were +3%. Now they are -3%. That is a 6% swing in one month – unprecedented. You have to go back more than 40 years to find a similar decline in GDP. Even then, it took 12 months. Generally, such…
We’ve addressed the evolving situation around coronavirus/COVID-19 in both our podcast and a previous blog. However, given the ongoing effects that concern the disease are having on both the marketplace and the zeitgeist, we’d like to delve into it again. In brief: our current circumstances are best approached with a…
The U.S. economy generated an impressive 266,000 jobs in November, in part reflecting the return to work of formerly striking GM employees. The Labor Department reported the unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%. They revised upward job growth in September as well as October. Lastly, they indicated wage growth rose…
The U.S. stock market, which is trading at all-time highs, tends to rise when there is no overhead resistance and economic indicators point to strength. The trajectory of markets has its foundation in the country’s democratic political system and its market-based, capitalist economic system. Using a simple theory, the stock…
History has a way or repeating itself, which leads us to believe that another recession is almost a certainty. It’s not so much a question of if, but rather of when. Historically, the American economy has grown in fits and starts, otherwise known as recessions and expansions. As a result,…
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