The initial phase of the economic restart has been quicker than expected, evidenced by the recent IMF’s upgrade to its global growth outlook. Yes, we have seen a rise in Covid-19 infections, but fatalities and hospitalizations have abated and a severe second wave seems less of a concern versus a…
A Consequential Election The U.S. Presidential election is expected to have big implications for markets – fiscal stimulus, public investment, taxation, regulation, and foreign affairs. We anticipate markets focusing on presidential debates, U.S. consumer confidence and employment numbers later this week. This time around, the U.S. election has a backdrop…
Stocks enjoy another banner week amid elevated risks. Second-quarter earnings data was destined to be catastrophic. However, corporate earnings have been better than many feared, leading to rising investor sentiment and stock prices. The downside, on the other hand, markets may have already priced in many of the positives. In…
Over the last few weeks, the European Union’s massive fiscal plan and expectations of additional stimulus in the U.S. seems to be effective in raising the hopes of investors. Still, upside in stocks was limited amid continued signs the economic recovery may be stalling – likely due to stalled progress…
In early March, consensus expectations for 2020 global GDP growth were +3%. Now they are -3%. That is a 6% swing in one month – unprecedented. You have to go back more than 40 years to find a similar decline in GDP. Even then, it took 12 months. Generally, such…
We’ve addressed the evolving situation around coronavirus/COVID-19 in both our podcast and a previous blog. However, given the ongoing effects that concern the disease are having on both the marketplace and the zeitgeist, we’d like to delve into it again. In brief: our current circumstances are best approached with a…
The U.S. economy generated an impressive 266,000 jobs in November, in part reflecting the return to work of formerly striking GM employees. The Labor Department reported the unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%. They revised upward job growth in September as well as October. Lastly, they indicated wage growth rose…
The U.S. stock market, which is trading at all-time highs, tends to rise when there is no overhead resistance and economic indicators point to strength. The trajectory of markets has its foundation in the country’s democratic political system and its market-based, capitalist economic system. Using a simple theory, the stock…
History has a way or repeating itself, which leads us to believe that another recession is almost a certainty. It’s not so much a question of if, but rather of when. Historically, the American economy has grown in fits and starts, otherwise known as recessions and expansions. As a result,…
2Q GDP GROWTH RATE LOWERED TO 2.0% The Commerce Department lowered its estimate of 2Q 19′ GDP growth rate to 2.0% from 2.1%. The results, which were in line with expectations, portray a U.S. economy that remains is in solid shape (the long-term growth forecast for GDP is 2.0%) but…
July was a positive month for the S&P 500, rising 1.3% while the core bond ETF (AGG) increased only 0.2%. Looking beyond the United States, stocks and emerging markets (stocks) slumped in the same period. Now, if we focus on the Price/Earnings ratios alone, domestic stocks may appear overvalued. However,…
Global stock markets jumped last week, with the S&P 500 Index rising 4.5% for its biggest gain since late November 2018. Short positions were covered due to technicals that suggested stocks were oversold. This fueled some of the recent recovery, but much of the boost, in our opinion, came after…
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